[Salon] Just Added – New Charts on the Senate-Passed Reconciliation Bill

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

Just Added – New Charts on the Senate-Passed Reconciliation Bill

July 1, 2025

The Senate passed a reconciliation bill that would add over $4 trillion to the national debt through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034, $1 trillion more than the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). We estimate the legislation would add about $5.5 trillion to the debt if made permanent and more if various provisions are removed to comply with the Byrd rule.

Senate OBBBA Would Result In Net Spending Increase If Extended

Through FY 2034 the federal government is projected to spend $86 trillion. The Senate OBBBA would cut that figure by a net $1.1 trillion – from $1.4 trillion of gross spending cuts and $300 billion of gross spending increases – excluding interest. Additional interest costs from the bill's borrowing would add about $700 billion to interest spending, bringing the net spending cut down to closer to $400 billion – just 0.5 percent of projected spending. If various temporary provisions of the bill are extended then total spending would actually increase by almost $200 billion through 2034.

Senate OBBBA Would Barely Change Annual Spending 

Annual spending is projected to rise from $6.8 trillion in FY 2024 to $10.3 trillion in 2034 under current law. The Senate-passed OBBBA would barely change that trajectory – while it includes a net $1.1 trillion of primary spending cuts, its interest costs from additional borrowing would result in net spending cuts totaling closer to $400 billion. As a result, spending in 2034 would total $10.2 trillion; if OBBBA's temporary provisions were made permanent, spending would actually grow above projections in 2034 to $10.4 trillion.

Senate-Passed OBBBA Would Add Trillions to Debt

While the House-passed OBBBA would add $2.4 trillion to primary deficits and $3.0 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, we estimate the Senate-passed OBBBA would add $1 trillion more -- bringing its debt increase to over $4.0 trillion. If its temporary provisions were made permanent, we estimate the debt increase would rise to $5.5 trillion.

 

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 US

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